Global climate Understanding Earth's climate system By Dr J Floor Anthoni (2010)
www.seafriends.org.nz/issues/global/climate.htm
(This chapter is best navigated by opening links in a new tab of your
browser)
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The Internet is abuzz with global warming
issues which have polarised those who believe that humans are causing catastrophic
global warming against those who believe this is not so. A United Nations
panel (IPCC) was established to study the matter in order to advise governments
of necessary action. Then Climategate exposed how this small group
of people defrauded the truth. All this time an urgent need existed for
a web site that clearly and concisely explains how the planet's climate
works and how it varies, yet in a way that ordinary people can understand,
while totally devoid of politics, beliefs and ulterior motives. Read on
- with care.
Planet Earth 'hangs' by an invisible thread between a sun of 6000ºC
and outer space of -273ºC, reason why its temperature cannot be constant.
Yet, miraculously it is more stable than expected. (30 pages)
Water is the strangest substance on Earth and also the most common.
Not surprisingly it plays a decisive role in weather and climate. Even
so it is grossly misunderstood and underestimated. (15 pages)
It is widely believed that cumulative burning of fossil fuels has upset
the climate to such extent that catastrophic global warming could follow,
but what is the story? (30 pages)
Higher levels of carbondioxide are beneficial to plants and the world
at large. This page examines the ecology of carbon, plant ecology and how
scientific growth experiments are done. Examples of important plant species
are provided. (9 pages)
Many believe that increasing levels of CO2 will acidify
the seas with disastrous consequences for sea life, but is this true? Threat
or fraud? How can one understand it? (large)
Soil is our most precious and also most abused resource. How is it
formed, how does it work and what does it need? What lives on it, where
why and how? How are we losing it and what must we do? (large)
Climategate has exposed corrupt scientists and their institutions.
Here we mention names in order to hold them accountable. Lest we forget;
we owe it to our children. We also dissect some utterly disgraceful articles
and statements from the scientific establishment. (22 pages)
www.uoguelph.ca/~rmckitri/research/ISPM.pdf
- Independent Summary for Policymakers of the IPCC Fourth Assessment
Report (Working Group 1) (64 pp) An alternative and more realistic
summary than that of the IPCC.
A concise history of the greenhouse effect, by Timothy
Casey: http://greenhouse.geologist-1011.net/,
describing the work of Fourier, Tyndall, Arrhenius and others, also clearing
up some misunderstandings, showing that CO2 has no effect.
www.aip.org/history/climate/
- the history of climate research. by Spencer Weart with many links.
Note a pro-AGW site! Large and detailed.
Note! for best printed results, read tips
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The whole section covers about MB, including text, drawings
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-- Seafriends home -- -- Rev:20100825,
Introduction The climate and with it temperature, is of critical
importance to the functioning of society and people's well-being. Because
a human generation lasts no longer than 60 years, excluding early childhood
and senility, we see only a short period of the courses that climates are
taking. So we are inclined to think that the world around us remains in
a steady state, that tomorrow is like yesterday. And indeed, the world's
climates have been remarkably steady.
But recently, we have been witnessing some warming, while at the same time
the awareness arose that perhaps we, ourselves, were the cause of this
warming. The obvious culprit is the carbondioxide emitted by industry and
our comfortable way of life because it has long been known that it blocks
part of the 'thermal' infrared radiation. For example, our 'sister' planet
Venus has an atmosphere consisting of carbondioxide, and its temperature
is very much higher than expected, measuring over 400 degrees Celsius,
more than enough to melt lead. So more and more people became concerned
that the same fate, run-away global warming, may befall Earth, or Catastrophic
Anthropogenic Global Warming (CAGW).
It didn't take long before the vast majority of people were drawn into
this scare scenario, predicting catastrophes from melting ice caps, rising
sea levels, floods, diseases spreading, loss of species, dying corals and
sea life, and much, much
more. World conferences were organised to jolt politicians into action,
which led to the inauguration of the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) to advise what is happening, how serious, and what to do.
In the meantime, the World Wide Web matured, reaching billions of people
with millions of pages of scary predictions. There appeared universal consensus
(by the 'warmists') that 'the science was settled' and that it was now
time for action - very costly action.
IPCC: The greenhouse effect is real; it
is a well understood effect, based on established scientific principles.
However, in reality, the science was far from settled, and skeptical
scientists (the 'skeptics') who had been blocked from the scientific process,
began to use the Internet to disperse criticism and alternative observations
and explanations.
"It's very disturbing that we do not
understand the climate on a planet [Venus] that is so much
like the Earth. It is telling us that we really don't understand the Earth.
We have ended up with a lot of mysteries." - Professor Fred Taylor,
a planetary scientist based at Oxford University and one of the ESA's chief
advisers for the Venus Express mission
This is where I became involved, and from here on, this introduction
is about my (Floor Anthoni) personal motivations and observations. Rewind
to 1987 when I began to realise that the seas around New Zealand were degrading
at an accelerating pace. It motivated me to stop doing what I did (computers
and electronics) and to begin 'saving the sea'. That meant a lot of re-schooling
(in marine ecology). I soon realised that education was the key t conservation
because we need to learn more before we can 'do the right thing for
the right reasons at the right time'. In 1997 the Internet led the
way, and I began writing this very large educational web site. My aim is
'accelerated learning' such that the reader can learn 100 times faster
than I did.
With very large chapters like oceanography,
soil,
degradation
and ocean acidification already completed, a large
chapter about climate and global warming was just the next step. I expected
that this would have been done by someone else a long time ago, but to
this day, there is no web site that would qualify. Sure, there are scores
of extensive web sites, both in the 'warmist' camp and in the opposite
camp, but one can easily get lost in the way they confuse. A site is needed
that provides critical step-by-step learning, while dissecting the science
and throwing challenges in as well, and all that without bias.
So here it is. This section is split into five new chapters added to
three already existing ones, completing the trilogy of land, sea and air:
Chapter 1: Marble in space. The world hangs by an invisible thread
between the hot sun and cold space. It has managed to stabilise its temperature
somewhat but large swings (the ice ages) are still there. Here you'll learn
about imaginary atmospheres to understand ours, and about albedo, Milankovic
cycles, the restless sun, the influence of cosmic radiation and other influences
Chapter 2: Water, ice and vapour. Water is the strangest, yet
most common substance on Earth. Many of its strange properties are what
stabilises the climate, causes ice ages, and most importantly, on which
life depends. You'll learn about its physical properties, humidity, latent
heat, ice shelves, glaciers and ice ages.
Chapter 3: Measuring temperature. It is surprisingly difficult
to measure temperature in a way that matters to understanding climate and
its changes. You'll learn about thermometers, the Stevenson Screen, Urban
Heat Island effects, weather balloons, paleothermometers, proxies and where
the heat content of Earth is found.
Chapter 4: Anthropogenic global warming, or how fossil fuels
are thought to warm the planet and cause climate change. you'll learn about
the IPCC and its computer models, to discover that a massive fraud is in
the making. You'll learn about hockey stick graphs and the basis of proof
offered by the IPCC.
Chapter 5: Greening planet. Both rising temperatures and rising
carbondioxide concentrations are very beneficial to all life. Here you'll
discover the positive sides of carbondioxide.
Don't miss out reading the other chapters as well:
Ocean acidification: the scare industry migrated from global
warming to climate change to ocean acidification but
here you'll discover how the ocean's chemistry really works, what is known
and not known, and why so many experiments have been fraudulent.
Oceanography: about the oceans, the biggest part of Earth by
far. You'll discover how waves work, tides, storms, dunes and beaches and
much more. This also contains the circulations of water and air and how
climate and weather are formed around the world.
Soil: this very large chapter introduces you to our most important
resource, how it is formed, what lives on it and where and why, and how
we are losing both its quality and quantity, and what we must do. It also
makes you understand the major biomes in the world.
Conclusion? A conclusion is not needed. Just let the facts speak
for themselves and make up your own mind. Is the IPCC report accurate,
inaccurate or fraudulent? Is climate understood, poorly understood or misunderstood?
Is 'climate change' natural or caused by humanity? Is warming inconsequential,
worrisome or catastrophic? Is the science (knowledge) settled, not settled
or mainly absent? Etc.
I am indebted to the many scientists who often spent their entire career
trying to extract meaningful data from the past. I have also been fortunate
with the development of the Internet and am equally indebted to so many
people who shared their ideas so unselfishly. Yet so much confusion has
been caused and spread by dishonest people.
Thousands of papers have been published,
yet so very few are worth citing.
Finally, don't be intimidated by the amount of time needed to study
all of the above. Think for a moment how much time it has taken me to put
it all together and for thousands of scientists to deliver the data. I
have included many drawings and graphics so you won't need to worry about
the calculations. Even so, it is only natural to read some of it several
times. And if there are things that are not quite clear, or should you
find mistakes,
e-mail me so that it can be
fixed.
If these chapter were useful to you, tell others, as many as you can
and as soon as you can. Link to this chapter from whichever website. If
you are financially comfortable, consider making a donation.
Together we can make a better world.
we need to do the right thing for the right
reasons at the right time, because we owe this to our children
- Floor Anthoni
Disclaimer I am not a climatologist
but have a keen eye for observation, a wide interest in science and a critical
mind trained in analysing big problems, breaking them apart and finding
the rules within. I am not paid by anybody. This is a labour of love, a
gift to future generations.
Floor Anthoni, May 2010.
Timeline Here is a time line of important events in the history of climatic
research and the narrative of manmade global warming.
1824: greenhouse effect discovered by Joseph Fourier, published
in: Mémoire sur les températures du globe terrestre et des
espaces planétaires. He later rejected the idea. At the time electromagnetic
radiation was not known, and scientists thought that energy was transferred
by an invisible substance, called aether. A concise history
of the greenhouse effect, by Timothy Casey: http://greenhouse.geologist-1011.net/,
describing the work of Fourier, Tyndall, Arrhenius and others, also clearing
up some misunderstandings.
1861: John Tyndall published that certain gases can absorb
thermal radiation.
1896: Svente Arrhenius proposes a Greenhouse Warming hypothesis,
which posits that global warming could occur due to Man's activities. He
calculates +1.5ºC for a doubling in CO2 and that a complete absence
of CO2 could cause -14.6ºC cooling, by far enough for a new ice age.
It is based on the assumption that heat is re-radiated entirely.
1900: K Ångström's experiment with CO2 showed:
1. CO2 is transparent to 90% of infrared radiation applicable to temperature
variation. 2. Those infrared bands that CO2 readily obstructs are already
almost totally blocked by atmospheric CO2. It essentially means that increased
CO2 has no effect.
1909: Möller (Germany) writes an influential textbook on meteorology
formulating the greenhouse effect on radiative transfers.
1938: George Callendar revives Arrhenius' Greenhouse Warming
hypothesis, becoming perhaps the father of the current dogma. He cherry-picked
CO2 concentrations from a wealth of data available at the time, to prove
that CO2 has been rising steadily from about 280ppm (1940-1950)
1956: Gilbert Plass did a detailed study of the absorption
spectra of atmospheric gases and concluded that a doubling of CO2 could
increase surface temperature by some 3 degrees C.
1957: Revelle & Seuss quote: "Thus human beings are now
carrying out a large scale geophysical experiment of a kind which could
not have happened in the past nor be reproduced in the future. Within a
few centuries we are returning to the air and oceans the concentrated organic
carbon stored over hundreds of millions of years."
1957-1958: International Geophysical Year, spurring the drilling
of ice cores
1958: accurate CO2 measurements begin at Mauna Loa under
the watchful eye of Charles D Keeling, initiated by Roger Revelle,
director of Scripps Institution of Oceanography.
1960: young astrophysicist Carl Sagan popularises the greenhouse
effect on Venus.
1962: The UN General Assembly invites the Council of Science Unions
(ICSU) and World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) to develop a research
programme on atmospheric sciences.
1964: The ICSU committee on atmospheric sciences is created, chaired
by Bert Bolin, an early computer modeler.
1967: The Global Atmosphere Research Programme (GARP) is established, with
chairman Bert Bolin.
1970-75: scare rages for a coming ice age.
1970: World Earth Day
1972: first Earth Summit in Stockholm. Catastrophic Anthropogenic
Global Warming (CAGW) is proposed by Maurice Strong. The UN Environment
Programme (UNEP) is established.
1972: Alfred Shack showed that the radiative component of
heat transfer by CO2 can be neglected at atmospheric temperatures, thus
proving that CO2 cannot have an important or even measurable effect on
climate.
1972 Conference on the Human Environment (UNCHE) in Stockholm, Sweden.
Its Stockholm
Declaration addressed the global issues of overpopulation, misuse of
resources and technology, unbalanced development, and the worldwide dilemma
of urbanization
1975: The first use of a General Circulation Model to study the
effects of carbon dioxide doubling, by Syukuro Manabe and Richard Wetherald
at Princeton University.
1976: Jack Eddy discovers the importance to climate of periods with
little or no sunspots, explaining the Little Ice Age and the Maunder
Minimum.
1979: satellites begin measuring sea ice extent.
1979: First World Climate Conference in Geneva: it confirmed the
long-term significance of CO2 for global climate.
1979: NASA's James Hansen's team of climate modelers convinced a
National Academy of Sciences (NAS) panel to report
[PDF] that doubling atmospheric CO2 -- which thought to have risen from
280 ppmv in the pre-industrial 1800s to over 335 ppmv -- would cause nearly
3°C of global warming
1980: GARP becomes the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP).
First Villach conference on climate.
1982: Syukuro Manabe & Möller (Germany) influential textbook
on meteorology, in which the greenhouse effect is calculated from radiative
transfers.
1985: the British Antarctic Survey (BAS) discovers the Antarctic
ozone hole
1985: Second Villach conference of WCRP
1985: the US Department of Energy's comprehensive report on the
greenhouse hypothesis becomes the basis for the IPCC, setting thermal conductivity
and friction to zero, which is not how the atmosphere works.
1986 Jul: WMO and UNEP establish the IPCC. Key personel and lead
authors appointed by governments.
1987: The Brundtland Report "Our Common Future" appears for
the UN World Commission on Environment and Development (UNWCED), igniting
today's green movements. Maurice Strong is a main protagonist.
1988: UNWCED conference in Toronta calls for a reduction in CO2
emissions to 20% of 1988 levels by 2005.
1988: IPCC established
1988: James Hansen, of NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, appeared
before a Congressional committee in the summer of 1988, during one of the
hottest months on record, and declared that there was no denying it, "Global
warming is here!"
1989: Stephen Schneider discloses several tricks: "To capture
the public imagination, we have to offer up some scary scenarios, make
simplified dramatic statements and little mention of any doubts one might
have. Each of us has to decide the right balance between being effective,
and being honest."
1990: First IPCC Assessment Report: "observed temperature
changes were broadly consistent with greenhouse models"
1992 June: UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC):
1992: UN Conference on Environment and Development ('Earth
Summit') in Rio de Janeiro. Adoption of Agenda
21, a global contract that bound governments around the world to a
U.N. plan to change the way people live, eat, learn and communicate, all
in the name of saving the earth from mankind’s mistakes, particularly global
warming. 178 governments signed there and then. Scretary-General Maurice
Strong, told the opening session that "industrialized countries had
developed and benefited from the unsustainable patterns of production and
consumption which have produced our present dilemma."
1995: IPCC Second Assessment Report: "the balance of evidence
suggests a discernible human influence on global climate"
1996: SEPP (Science and Environmental Policy Project) publishes
its Leipzig Declaration and a book titled The Scientific Case
Against the Global Climate Treaty.
1997: Fully 160 countries agreed to the legally binding Kyoto
Protocol, under which industrialized countries would reduce their collective
emissions by 5.2%.
1997: the Pacific Decadal Oscillation was named by Steven R. Hare,
who noticed it while studying salmon production patterns. Simultaneously
the PDO climate pattern was also found by Yuan Zhang. Nations agree to
reduce GHG emissions to 1990 levels.
2001: the IPCC produce their Third Assessment Report (TAR):
"new
and stronger evidence of anthropogenic global warming"."Most of the observed
warming in the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase
in greenhouse gas concentrations (greater than 66% probability".
2002: SEPP rebuts TAR with a booklet The Kyoto Protocol is not
backed by science.
2005 Feb: Nations agree to their Kyoto commitments by 2012.
2005 Nov: Lawrence Livermore Laboratories announced that "if
humans continue to use fossil fuels in a business-as-usual manner for the
next few centuries, the polar ice caps will be depleted, ocean sea levels
will rise by seven meters and median air temperatures will soar to 14.5
degrees warmer than current day..."
2006 May: Al Gore produces the slideshow/movie 'An inconvenient
truth',
2007: the IPCC produce their Fourth Assessment Report (AR4):
"most
of the observed increase in global average temperature is very likely (90%
likelihood) due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas
concentrations", "Disernible human influences now extend to other aspects
of climate, including ocean warming, continental-average temperatures,
temperature extremes and wind patterns".
2007 Feb: Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change
(NIPCC) was established to counteract IPCC's spurious claims. "the IPCC
is provoking an irrational fear of anthropogenic global warming based on
incomplete and faulty science."
2007 Mar: the movie 'The Great Global Warming Swindle' exposes
Al Gore's scientific exaggerations and fallacies.
2007 Apr: NIPCC conference in Vienna.
2008-2012: EPOCA European Project on Ocean Acidification to advance
understanding of the biological, ecological, biogeochemical, and societal
implications of ocean acidification.
2009 Nov: important e-mails from the IPCC 'climate gang' are leaked
onto the Web. They show how a small clique of IPCC scientists acted to
propagate a climate of fear for catastrophic global warming and how they
defrauded the truth. Known as Climategate, a large number of climate
skeptics discover one scientific fraud after another.
2010 June: climate
scientists statement : “We, the undersigned, having assessed the
relevant scientific evidence, do not find convincing support for the hypothesis
that human emissions of carbon dioxide are causing, or will in the foreseeable
future cause, dangerous global warming."
What's new? yyyymmdd
20100804 - Chapter
3: temperature corruption.
How is it done? What is the state of the temperature record? Why?
20100801 - Chapter
2: Does global cooling
cause heat-waves? 20100620 - Chapter
5 Greening Planet added.
20100606 - placed
the whole section on the Web. Chapter 5 in progress. More changes and additions
to come.
20100530 - Chapters
1-4 ready for review